Bayesian nonparametric inference for panel count data with an informative observation process

In this paper, the panel count data analysis for recurrent events is considered. Such analysis is useful for studying tumor or infection recurrences in both clinical trial and observational studies. A bivariate Gaussian Cox process model is proposed to jointly model the observation process and the recurrent event process. Bayesian nonparametric inference is proposed for simultaneously estimating regression parameters, bivariate frailty effects, and baseline intensity functions. Inference is done through Markov chain Monte Carlo, with fully developed computational techniques. Predictive inference is also discussed under the Bayesian setting. The proposed method is shown to be efficient via simulation studies. A clinical trial dataset on skin cancer patients is analyzed to illustrate the proposed approach.     

Preventing Ultimate Harm as the Justification for Biomoral Modification

Most advocates of biogenetic modification hope to amplify existing human traits in humans in order to increase the value of such traits as intelligence and resistance to disease. These advocates defend such enhancements as beneficial for the affected parties. By contrast, some commentators recommend certain biogenetic modifications to serve social goals. As Ingmar Persson and Julian Savulescu see things, human moral psychology is deficient relative to the most important risks facing humanity as a whole, including the prospect of Ultimate Harm, the point at which worthwhile life is forever impossible on the planet. These risks can be mitigated, they say, by enhancing moral psychology in novel ways. Persson and Savulescu argue that some parents should modify the underlying biogenetics of their children's moral psychology, if such measures were safe and effective, but they admit these interventions may not decouple humanity from Ultimate Harm. Neither are these modifications the only options, they concede, for addressing risks to humanity. Even with these concessions, saving humanity from itself is a fairly poor reason to modify the moral psychology of children. In most ways, adults would be better candidates, morally speaking, for modifications of psychology. Even then, there is no direct link between morally enhanced human beings and the hoped‐for effect of better protection from Ultimate Harm. Asserting a general duty of all to contribute to the avoidance of Ultimate Harm is a better moral strategy than intervening in the moral psychology of some, even though meeting that duty may involve substantial interference with the free exercise of one's interests.     

The strong-migration limit for the genealogical process in geographically structured populations

In this article we assume that the entire population is subdivided into a finite number of panmictic colonies, each of which consists of a respective number of haploid individuals. We also assume that random genetic drift occurs in each colony and migration among colonies, which is independent of time and ergodic. We study the genealogical process of sampled genes from geographically structured populations. We prove that if the actual total population number is replaced by the effective population number, the mean coalescence time converges to that in a panmictic population in the strong migration limit. We also obtain the geographical distribution of the common ancestor.     

An improved approach to evaluate car sharing options

We develop an improved approach to evaluate car sharing options under uncertain environments with the combination of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (F-AHP) and Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (F-TOPSIS), which consists of three steps. In the first step, we propose a SCUMN (Specific, Comprehensive, Understandable, Measurable, and Neutral) methodology to identify appropriate indicators and obtain a final list of 24 indicators according to their relevance to car sharing options. In the second step, we determine the weight of each indicator with F-AHP and conduct consistency check of the comparison matrix of selected indicators. In the third step, comparison of different options is performed with selected indicators and F-TOPSIS. A case study is provided to validate the proposed approach. Twenty-four indicators are identified to evaluate five different car sharing options and rank them according to their closeness coefficients in decreasing order. And thirty-one sensitivity analysis experiments are conducted to figure out the influence of indicators on decision making. The experimental results show that the proposed approach is capable of evaluating car sharing options with uncertainty and vagueness. F-AHP is able to determine the weight for each selected indicator and F-TOPSIS demonstrates its advantage in comparing potential options.     

Esterification using a liquid lipase to remove residual free fatty acids in biodiesel

Lately, the price of liquid formulated lipase enzymes, usable in biodiesel production, has been significantly reduced. This enables one-time use of these enzymes for transesterification, and the process is used industrially. However, the process suffers a drawback by leaving 2−3 % free fatty acids in the crude biodiesel, which reduces the profitability. This article discusses a novel enzymatic FFA esterification reaction utilizing liquid lipase B from Candida antarctica (CALB) along with glycerol at low water concentrations to eliminate the residual FFA. The reaction setup was found able to reduce the free fatty acid concentration to within biodiesel specifications of < 0.25 wt.% FFA. Additionally, two alternative process setups are proposed, which were both found viable through a combination of experiments and simulations, and can be developed into full-scale processes. The resulting two-step enzymatic biodiesel process - transesterification followed by esterification - provides a potential process layout for the industrial production of biodiesel.     

Establishment of the introduced kelp Undaria pinnatifida in Tasmania depends on disturbance to native algal assemblages

Despite recent rapid increases in the occurrence of nonindigenous marine organisms in the marine environment, few studies have critically examined the invasion process for a marine species. Here we use manipulative experiments to examine processes of invasion for the Asian kelp Undaria pinnatifida (Harvey) Suringar at two sites on the east coast of Tasmania. Disturbance to reduce cover of the native algal canopy was found to be critical in the establishment of U. pinnatifida, while the presence of a stable native algal canopy inhibited invasion. In the first sporophyte growth season following disturbance of the canopy, U. pinnatifida recruited in high densities (up to 19 plants m⁻²) while remaining rare or absent in un-manipulated plots. The timing of disturbance was also important. U. pinnatifida recruited in higher densities in plots where the native canopy was removed immediately prior to the sporophyte growth season (winter 2000), compared with plots where the canopy was removed 6 months earlier during the period of spore release (spring 1999). Removal of the native canopy also resulted in a significant increase in cover of sediment on the substratum. In the second year following canopy removal, U. pinnatifida abundance declined significantly, associated with a substantial recovery of native canopy-forming species. A feature of the recovery of the native algal canopy was a significant shift in species composition. Species dominant prior to canopy removal showed little if any signs of recovery. The recovery was instead dominated by canopy-forming species that were either rare or absent in the study areas prior to manipulation of the canopy.